Bengal Insight

Tag: Brazil

  • Lula has the first-round edge, but Brazil runoff is too close to call

    Lula has the first-round edge, but Brazil runoff is too close to call

    Brazil’s presidential race is entering its final stretch with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro separated by just a fraction of a percentage point in a possible second-round contest.

    An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on September 29 showed Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6% in a simulated runoff. The 0.1-point gap is well within the survey’s margin of error.

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    Not enough

    The latest Brazil election numbers leave little room for comfort, with Lula ahead in round one but virtually tied with Flavio Bolsonaro in round two | X (@Hotspotorlando)
    The latest Brazil election numbers leave little room for comfort, with Lula ahead in round one but virtually tied with Flavio Bolsonaro in round two | X (@Hotspotorlando)

    The same poll gives Lula a clearer lead in the first round, but still not enough to cross the threshold needed to win outright.

    Lula was on 45.3% and Bolsonaro on 42.2%, with Renan Santos at 5.2% and Augusto Cury at 2%.

    Brazil’s first-round vote is scheduled for October 4. Under the country’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must secure more than half of the valid votes to avoid a runoff.

    If that does not happen, the top two candidates face each other again on October 25.

    A tie by decimals

    The numbers also show how little distance there is between the two leading campaigns. In the previous AtlasIntel poll, released on September 23, Lula had 45.8% in the first round and Bolsonaro 43.4%.

    In the simulated runoff, Lula led 47.7% to Bolsonaro’s 47.4%. The latest survey therefore shows a small movement in both scenarios, but not a decisive break in the overall contest.

    AtlasIntel surveyed 5,005 people between September 23 and 28. The reported margin of error is one percentage point.

    Campaign mood and voter uncertainty

    Brazil's president and US senator Bernie Sanders share a warm moment during a meeting | X (@SenSanders)
    Brazil’s president and US senator Bernie Sanders share a warm moment during a meeting | X (@SenSanders)

    That closeness comes as the campaign remains relatively subdued on the ground. A recent analysis by political scientist Sergio Abranches, published by Scroll, described the campaign as “lackluster” and pointed to the growing importance of digital platforms.

    Abranches cited a September 21 Quaest poll in which 21% of respondents said their first-round choice could still change. He also noted that independent voters remained divided between the two main candidates.

    These polls showing a near dead heat should be read as a snapshot of the race, rather than a prediction of the final result.

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    The final stretch

    The campaign is also being shaped by economic concerns. Lula’s team has been discussing a gradual fiscal adjustment, while advisers to Bolsonaro were proposing a faster reduction in the fiscal deficit.

    Both camps face questions over mandatory spending, including pensions and social benefits. Yet fiscal policy has not been the dominant theme of the campaign.

    With the first round only days away, the latest polling leaves the race open and puts greater attention on how voters respond in the final days before October 4.